Sunday, May 07, 2006

The Championship scene

Schumacher might have won the Euro GP in spectacular style, but the fact remains that he could only make up 2 points on Alonso. But with the tyres being so evenly matched, Alonso remains at a slight advantage.

This is because (as Martin Brundle pointed out) there are more Michelin runners likely to do better than Michael on a Michelin friendly track , than there are Bridgestone runners likely to do better than Alonso on a Bridgestone friendly track.

What that means is that when Michelin are on top, Alonso will win and he will find some of Montoya/Kimi/Button/ between himself and Michael. On the other hand, when Bridgestones are on top, Michael will win, but there is no one from the Bridgestone camp to challenge Alonso for second, and Alonso will gladly take second.

Michael and Ferrari need to hope that a) there are more Bridgestone friendly circuits and b) Massa and perhaps Kimi need to get ahead of Alonso when Michael wins.

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